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Big 12 Trap Games: Kansas State vs Iowa State

Big 12 Trap Games: Kansas State vs Iowa State

I’m going to start listing some trap games for the 2012 season. These trap games are games that I feel could be bad spots for the favored teams. I’ll start with the conference I’m most familiar with, the Big 12.

This is a game in which I believe Iowa State will have a little extra incentive to win. This series has been very close as it is. The last 4 years their games have been decided by a TD or less. Iowa St. has always given KSU fits. I expect it to be no different this year.

K-State coming off HUGE rivalry game

The Kansas State at Iowa State game falls in line as a great spot for ISU since it comes a week after KSU’s annual rivalry game with Kansas. The Kansas State v Kansas game has always been considered a HUGE in-state rivalry for the Kansas schools. The biggest reason being that this game is all about recruiting wars. Kansas has one of the best junior college systems in the country. And each will do their best to try and gain that advantage with their JC recruiting.

After KSU plays this emotionally charged game, they will be visiting Ames for the first time since 2007. This game has been played on a neutral field for the last few years before it was moved back to a home and home starting last year in Manhattan.

So the excitement factor should be extremely high for Cyclone fans for this game. KSU is not only coming off a big in-state rivalry game, they will also have to go to West Virginia the following week. So this comes very close to being a sandwich game.

Trap Games - Iowa State HC Paul Rhoads

Iowa State HC Paul Rhoads

The point spread is key

The biggest question for us bettors will be how much will we get on the point spread?

The game was Iowa State +10 last year in Manhattan, and the Cyclones covered, losing 30-23. We won’t get that much this year since I expect KSU to have a loss (OU) by the time they get to Ames.

What I would like to see is KSU beat Kansas and rub a little salt in their wounds with the score. That might buy us an extra point or two. I’m thinking it’s going to be around ISU +6 or more.

Must win situation for Cyclones?

I think there is a decent chance that the Cyclones could be in desperation mode by the time these teams meet. Iowa State plays Texas Tech in their first conference game on September 29th, they then go on to play at TCU the following week. If they lose to Texas Tech, there is a good chance they will be 0-2 in Big 12 play going into this game. Therefore, they will probably put all of their emotional eggs in one basket for the Kansas State game. My bet is a cover or an outright upset over a KSU team who won’t find the going with their schedule quite as smooth as they did last year.

What do you think of Iowa State’s chances of pulling the upset in this game? And let me know some of the potential trap games you are looking at this season. Thanks,

- GoSooners

 

 

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2 Responses to “Big 12 Trap Games: Kansas State vs Iowa State”

  1. SoonerBS says:

    I can see this one. K-State has absolutely riddled Kansas the last two years, but they will still have the intensity for the reasons you have listed.

    I really like Iowa State going on the road to play Oklahoma better for Iowa State. You know Iowa State is going to play hard against Oklahoma. They played hard against all the teams better than themselves last season. They look at themselves as giant-killers and they believe they can do it. Oklahoma, on the other hand, will be coming off a huge game against Notre Dame. You know it’s big, Patrick, because fans and media have been talking about this game ever since they got it scheduled. The Iowa State game is going to be a big let-down after ND and with a revenge spot against Baylor on deck.

  2. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Denny, two teams in the Big 12 that I’m probably going to pick on this season a little more than the others are Okie St. and K-State. For one reason because they both beat the spread last year. And it’s hard to repeat those kinds of seasons. And for another, in KSU’s case there are some subtle differences in their schedule that is going to make it much more difficult for them.

    Last year KSU went on the road 5 times. They were a dog in every one of those games except in-state against Kansas. This year I can see two games where they’ll go on the road as favorites. And that is ISU and probably Baylor. And TCU will probably just be a short favorite against them. It’s a much different feeling going into another team’s house as a favorite than the dog.

    Iowa State on the other hand won’t be getting much respect on the spreads. So they are always a team I look to play on. They went 6-7 last year, but they were 7-5 ATS. When I see more ATS wins than SU wins, it tells me we’ve got a well coached fighter on our hands who also gets disrespected on the line. The best thing as bettors we could ask for. Paul Rhoads is 20-16 ATS in his 3 years there. And he’s never had a winning season! That’s pretty remarkable.

    I agree with you about OU/Iowa State. This is also a game on my radar. Something else to consider here is OU will not only more than likely be a little emotionally spent for this game, but also physically spent. Notre Dame is built more like a Big 10 team. Very physical in the trenches. Especially this season. So it will be interesting to see how OU holds up against them.Hopefully we’ll get a good number the next week with ISU.

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