Jimmyshivers Week 12 ACC Football Picks
I went 0-4 last week and most of them weren’t even close. Very hungry to bring The Saturday Edge readers a bounceback week in week 12 of ACC play.
Week 12 Plays:
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +29 1U
When you are investing in a huge underdog at this point in the season you need to have a strong feeling that the dog you are investing in is still playing for something. While Wake Forest will not be going bowling this season, the Deacons are still playing very hard and were actually kind of impressive in a similar role last week vs Notre Dame. Though the Deacons lost by 3 scores they actually outgained and out first downed the Irish by a significant margin and have been a solid 4-2 as a dog of more than a score this season. This is another good spot to fade a Clemson team who has a big rivalry game on deck with a down South Carolina team (Dabo will run that one up if he can) and no need to impress pollsters by hanging a big number. I think Clemson wins fairly comfortably but rests their starters once the game is comfortably in hand as every game they have left this season is more important than this one. Clemson 38 – Wake Forest 17
Louisville +1.5 1U
I really like the way this Cardinals team is playing down the stretch of the season as they come in here on a 4 game winning streak and having won 6 of 7 after starting the year 0-3. I think we are getting a little value here on Louisville at a line that I made -2 for the visitors. The Cardinals bring in the better defense into this game and it matches up really well, as Pittsburgh loves to try and run the football (top 25 team in run %) and are facing a top 10 run defense. While Pitt has been a pretty solid passing team when throwing to Tyler Boyd it’s also a pretty solid Louisville secondary who has a big edge in the pass rush match-up (106th sack rate offense vs 21st sack rate defense). Pitt is still alive in the ACC Coastal and should be motivated, but I think they’ve been a little lucky in how the schedule has broken for them (lucky to catch Duke without their QB last week). Louisville 28 Pitt 24
Virginia Tech +4 1U
I played this at 7.5 on Sunday. It’s a real solid spot to back the Hokies here in their final home game of the season that is also serving as the final home game of Frank Beamer’s coaching career. It’s sure to be a madhouse at Lane Stadium on Saturday, and when you go back and look at UNC’s schedule you see just how lucky they’ve been to avoid any type of real hostile crowd whatsoever this season (only 2 road games all season, at Georgia Tech and at Pitt). This will almost certainly be an extremely hostile crowd that will do everything possible to help cause confusion and send their beloved coach out a winner. Aside from that angle, I also like the way this offense for VT is playing, since Michael Brewer came back they’ve been much more dynamic offensively and have been able to establish some solid offensive balance (the emergence of RB Trevon McMillian has also been a boost). I like Virginia Tech to find a way to win outright Hokies 28 Heels 24.
NC State -17 1U
While Syracuse got handed a few scores last week against Clemson in a letdown spot for the Tigers, the Orange are one of the worst teams in the ACC when healthy and without Eric Dungey may just be the conference’s worst team. NC State has a good habit of blowing out lesser teams under Dave Doeren and I look for NC State to be able to exploit a bad Syracuse defense that frequently gives up big plays here. This is a bad match-up for the Orange here and for a team that is more than likely a few weeks away from looking for a new coach I don’t expect they give a very big effort here once they get behind. Give me NC State in a laugher Wolfpack 41 Syracuse 10