Jimmyshivers Week 9 ACC Picks
No lengthy pre-amble from me this week, I’m in Vegas for the next 8 days so going to keep my write-up here very short as there are many things to do and many games to bet! We got back to our winning ways in week 8 and if you follow me on twitter you know that we won with UNC last night, so let’s do it again in week 9.
Louisville -11 1 Unit
I played -9.5 on open. Louisville was firmly the right side last week but gave the cover away against a bad Boston College offense by gift wrapping them 2 TDs through turnovers. Otherwise, I saw a lot that I liked there, the defense is starting to click into place and Lamar Jackson continues to grow into the Cardinals QB of the future.
This is another game where the Louisville defense should be able to tee off on the opposing offensive line to generate pressure. The Deacons have really struggled to protect their quarterback this season as they have allowed sacks on nearly 9% of all pass attempts. In going against a top 15 sack defense in Louisville I expect that Hinton will be dealing with a collapsing pocket all game, and it’s going to stack the deck against what is already on one the nation’s poorest offenses (119th in points per game, 115th in yards per game).
Louisville has struggled more than I expected on offense this season, but I think it’s an improving unit that was starting over at several key positions this year and took longer than expected to settle on a quarterback. I’ll back them again this week as they continue to fight their way back to over .500 against a Wake Forest team that once again just does not have the horses to compete on most nights in this league. Louisville 27 Wake 10
I played Georgia Tech -2.5 on open. Pass on the -6 / -6.5 that’s available now
I played Duke -8 on open. Pass on the -13 that’s available now.
NC State +10.5 1U
I actually expected this line to be a little lower and was going to pass, but at 10.5 we are getting a little bit of line value (I made 7.5) as well as a pretty solid spot to back the Wolfpack. We’re getting Clemson in a little bit of a sandwich spot off a lopsided win at Miami and before their potentially season-defining game next week against Florida State.
A tight game here would not be an example of ‘Clemsoning’ in the least. While NC State lost their first 2 conference games it’s a solid team with a really strong run game and a capable QB. The Wolfpack also boast a solid pass defense (26th in opposing QB rating) and a defense that is even stronger up front (less than 4 yards per carry, top 10 in sack rate and TFL rate). Give me what I have as a 7-8 win ACC team at home with double digits in what I project to be a close one. Clemson 27 NC State 21
Syracuse +17 1U
FSU is also in a tough spot here coming off their first loss with the Clemson game on deck, and to compound matters they lose their all-everything back this week in Dalvin Cook. While FSU hasn’t been poor in throwing the ball they have leaned really heavily on that run game and have just asked Everett Golson to be a game manager. He is going to have to do more this week than that as they are going against a Cuse defense that has been solid vs the run (admittedly, the Orange secondary has been toasted all season). I’ll take a shot on a Syracuse team that seems to keep it close every week and has a quarterback who is quietly becoming one of the ACC’s rising stars in Eric Dungey. I think we get another FSU sleepwalk before their big game next week Florida State 31 Syracuse 20
Virginia Tech – Boston College U38 1U
I’m going to keep playing BC unders even after the loss in the Clemson game as their offense is not improving but their defense is still really solid. Virginia Tech is starting to find a rhythm on offense now that they have Michael Brewer back, and RB Trevon McMillian is already the best running back the Hokies have produced since the Ryan Wiliams / David Wilson era. Yet the truth remains that VT is an very average offensive team (my 90th ranked offense) and going against what is still a top 10 defense in Boston College. Look for Virginia Tech to play field position football here because..
This Eagles team appears to be set to join last year’s Wake Forest offense as the worst unit the ACC has put forth in at least a decade. The Eagles are last nationally in many key stats, and are last in yards per play by nearly 10% over the 2nd worst team. The Eagles problems are myriad but the biggest one is that they just don’t have a quarterback who can play at this level yet, and surprisingly they have one of the weakest offensive lines in the country (128th in tack for loss %, 120th in sack rate). I think we see Bud Foster look to tee off on this offense and get his defense back on track after giving up a bundle last week in a tough 4-OT loss to Duke. Hokies 17 Eagles 6