Jimmyshivers Week 2 ACC Football Thread
Just looking to move on from week one after flat out doing a terrible job with last weeks card. I’ve had bad weeks where I felt like I did a good job with the card but not this time, you could argue that the only loss that was a tough break was the UNC play as they appeared to be the better team. Plays on Tulane, VT-OSU Under and Wofford just didn’t work out the way that was anticipated. Here is hoping that Week 2 brings better luck.
TSE Record Keeping:
Week 2 ACC Plays
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +4 Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Wake Forest ML +160 Risking 0.50 units to win 0.80 units
I shared this play on twitter earlier in the week at the widely available line of +6, but even at +4 I still see some value with the Deacons. In year 2 of Dave Clawson’s offense I expect to see significant growth for what was a historically bad unit last season, and the very early returns (admittedly against a bad Elon team) have shown some promise. 2nd year starter John Wolford has a live arm and was throwing the ball all over the field last week (20-27, 327 yrds) and he even managed to spring for a 70 yard touchdown run (and somehow only finished with 63 yards rushing). Wake also managed to run for over 200 yards last weekend, and while this isn’t impressive in itself it is nearly ½ of what they ran for in all of 2014.
Syracuse also blew out an overmatched FCS foe, but in the process of doing so the Orange managed to lose their starting QB Terrel Hunt for the season. The replacement was true freshman Eric Dungey who was solid in the opener but now is lining up against a much tougher team and may struggle in the step-up in competition.
The short of it is we have two relatively equal programs with regards to talent (Wake 67th in my 5 year recruiting rankings, Syracuse 62nd) who are coming off identical 3-9, 1-7 seasons. But on the road we are getting the team in the 2nd year of a rebuilding project who returns more experience (16 starters returning for Wake, only 11 for the Cuse) and has the much more experienced quarterback. I think Wake is getting a few extra points here after how bad their offense was last season, but in reality I don’t see why an equally talented Syracuse team with less experience should be more than a pick’em at home. Wake Forest 27 Syracuse 24
Virginia Cavaliers +12.5 Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Keeping this one very simple, I’m fading a Notre Dame team on the road in a sandwich spot (between primetime smack down of Texas and a top-15 game vs Georgia Tech) laying what I feel is an inflated number. I had Notre Dame as a top 10 team in the preseason and still only made this spread -7.5 here so I see some good number value with the home dog Cavaliers as well. While Virginia didn’t exactly blow anyone away last week they did move the ball well enough (3 RZ drives stalled for field goals) where the game could have easily been a little closer than the final score (a game which the covered the opening number). I’m expecting a solid performance this week at home from a Virginia team who knocked off Louisville last season in a fairly similar spot. Notre Dame 27 Virginia 20.
Appalachian State – Clemson O58.5 Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Just taking a stab on what I feel is a number that isn’t fully adjusted to represent just what this year’s Clemson team is all about. I believe that Clemson will be a much faster paced team this year in an effort to take advantage of both their improvement at QB with a healthy Deshaun Watson and their general depth of skill position talent. Their defense is also going to take a sizeable step back (only 4 starters return; 4 of LY’s front 7 made final NFL rosters) so they will likely need to do more on offense to win games this year.
Betting over’s is a 2-team proposition in most cases and here I have no issue believing that App State can contribute the 21 points that the spread indicates they need to cover the total. The Mountaineers are a favorite to win the Sun Belt this year and are lead by a very capable offense who return almost everyone and are equally capable of both throwing and running the ball successfully. With Clemson in between playing an option-based team in Wofford and with just 5 short days of rest before a physical encounter with Louisville it would be understandable if the coaching staff took it easy on his defense if the offense gave them a substantial late lead. I see lots of points here, not sure who covers as the backdoor could be open and App State has the personnel to walk through it. Clemson 45 App State 31
Georgia Tech – Tulane O54.5 Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
I just can’t envision a scenario where a Tulane team who was badly outmatched at the defensive LOS is able to stop this high flying Georgia Tech offense at all, but I don’t want to lay the points as I think the backdoor will be open for the Green Wave to score late. Georgia Tech might very well be good for 50+ here by themselves as this offense absolutely destroyed overmatched opponents, but I’m projecting a much better showing for the Tulane offense than last week’s humiliating effort. Jackets also have Notre Dame on deck so they may take it easy on their defensive personnel once they get up large. Georgia Tech 48 Tulane 17