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2012 College Football Win Totals: Nebraska

2012 College Football Win Totals: Nebraska

The current 2012 college football win totals for the Huskers is 8.5 wins (-105 under) and (-135 over) at 5Dimes. NU is coming off a 9-4 season with 9 regular season wins in their first year as a Big 10 member. The question is where do they go from there?

The schedule gets harder in 2012

In many ways the Cornhuskers were a fortunate team in 2011 when it came to their schedule. Even though they drew Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin from the Leaders Division, NU caught the best possible breaks that could happen for a first year team.

They caught Ohio State after the firing of Tressel, and having to deal with the chaos from the player suspensions and an interim head coach. And then having to travel to Lincoln with a freshman QB starting his first conference road game.

NU then caught Penn State just as the Sandusky scandal was becoming a full fledged nightmare for the school, and Paterno was out and not allowed to coach in that last home game against Nebraska. So again, Pelini got to go up against an assistant coach and a football program in disarray and shock over the incidents.

Then NU also had the good fortune to play Michigan State at home after MSU had just come off an emotionally draining 3 week run against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan. It was very obvious to me that MSU had nothing left in their tank that day in Lincoln.

This year I don’t see NU catching those kinds of breaks with their schedule. Their Big 10 schedule is brutal. They have to play Wisky, OSU and PSU from the Leaders Division. And they won’t catch the kind of scheduling breaks they caught with MSU last year in their own division. The Huskers will have to earn every win they get this season against teams that won’t be going through the kind of turmoil they had last year..

The non-conference games will be tougher

Although Southenrn Miss loses their excellent head coach Larry Fedora, they still can’t be overlooked after coming off a 12-2 season,C-USA championship, bowl win and some good memories. NU is an early 2 TD favorite,  but they’ll have to be on their toes against one of the most talented teams in the CUSA, and a dual threat QB.

The Huskers then travel to UCLA the following week. I have a feeling  this won’t be your same old loser Bruins team we saw under Neuheisel. With Jim Mora coming in, I believe they’ll have the best coach that they’ve had for the last couple decades.  A ton of blue chip talent, a veteran QB and 16 starters back for Mora to work with.

Plus let’s remember that even though they backed in because of USC’s probation, the Bruins still played in the Pac’s first Championship Game last year. And a sure to be improved Bruins team is picked to finish second in their division this year behind USC. So I have a pretty strong feeling that NU will be in for a dogfight when they travel to LA.

The Pelini Factor

2012 College Football Win Totals - Nebraska Cornhuskers

Nebraska HC Bo Pelini

In considering  win totals we still have to consider the Pelini factor.  Has Bo Pelini learned anything in his 4 years as HC?  He seems to be one of those coaches that are still learning on the fly.

He’s had to deal with anger issues on the field, which has a tendency to trickle down to his team when they face adversity. As in the Wisconsin and Michigan games last season.

As I’ve said before on here, unless I see a very special type of coach, I’m very leery of coaches who get their first job on the division 1 BCS level power teams.

Because of the pressure, coaches like that usually don’t succeeed, or never reach a high enough winning level to satisfy their fans.. So the book is still out on Pelini. Is he special? So far I’m not getting any warm fuzzies over him.

Nebraska’s 2012 College Football Win Totals

There are several problems I have with Nebraska this year. The development of their O-Line. The further development of Taylor Martinez into more of a passing QB. I need to see a big improvement in that throwing motion before I become a believer.

How much their defense will be improved. This is one area where I think they could improve. But keep in mind that they also lose DC Carl Pelini, and Bo will take over play calling duties.  I’m not so sure that’s a good thing. It can be a big job to put on your shoulders when your also having trouble just being an adequate head coach.

The team does have a chance to improve on offense in the second year of OC Tim Beck’s system. But Beck is not somebody new to the team since he’s already been there 4 years and was just promoted to the job. This is the main problem that I’m having with Nebraska. I’m not seeing anything talent-wise or coaching-wise that’s offering me anything new to where I think they can make that big leap from last season to become a college football dynasty again.

Honestly, when I look at the other teams rosters from the Legends Division, I think the Huskers best chances to win that divison will be next year after Michigan’s dynamic QB Deanrd Robisnon is gone and the Huskers get MSU and Iowa back in Lincoln. And they don’t draw Wisky, PSU and OSU from the Leaders Division. Success can be all about scheduling. And with Nebraska this can be especially true.

I’m leaning Under 8.5 wins. There are four very possible losses on the schedule, at Ohio State and at MSU, both revenge games for those teams. And I don’t believe NU can beat both Wisky and Michigan at home. Iowa and UCLA, both on the road are close to tossups. Here is the team by team win percentages I give the Huskers this year.

2012 College Football Win Totals - Nebraska

Southern Miss 70%
@UCLA 55%
Arkansas State 90%
Idaho State 100%
Wisconsin 50%
@Ohio State 35%
@Northwestern 65%
Michigan 45%
@MSU 40%
Penn State 60%
Minnesota 80%
@Iowa 55%

But if I know Pelini and Nebraska, they’ll drop a game they’re suppose to win. It seems to happen every season for this program.

It was Northwestern in Lincoln last season. A team that finished 6-7. So nothing is a given for this Huskers team. If you go by the past, Nebraska has been a steady 9 win team every year. But I think the Big 10 is going to shake that streak up a bit this year.

OSU, Michigan, and possibly MSU could and probably will all be better. And they didn’t even come close to beating Michigan and Wisky in 2011. But like I said, watch the Huskers in 2013. Just when everybody is down on them, they could very well come in and win their divison. Which is the next step for this program if Pelini wants to see future paychecks.

Let me know how many games you think Nebraska will win in the comments section. Thank you – GS.

5 Responses to “2012 College Football Win Totals: Nebraska”

  1. SoonerBS says:

    I agree with your assessment of Nebraska, but, of course, I have always been one who has tended to fade the Cornhusker hype in years past for some easy money.

    Now, unlike you, I am going to have to expect UCLA to be just as terrible as they have showed in years previous under Neuheisal. Why? Because it is Neuheisal – a highly overrated coach who has never been able to show an inch worth of improvement at UCLA, but has had every excuse in the world about why it has happened.

    I learned my lesson on Dan Hawkins. I kept wanting to believe that he had to be a better coach than what he was actually showing. But, I was obviously wrong. I could be fooled, but I see Neuheisal being the same type of coach and I don’t even think Mora can save him.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      You are 100% correct about Neuheisel being highly overrated. However the one big difference between the Hawkins situation at CU and the Neuheisel situation at UCLA is that Embree was left with very little talent to work with, whereas Mora inherits some talented players at various positions.

      I don’t know enough about Mora to make a guess as to whether or not he is a good coach and/or a good fit for the Bruins. But he does have a lot more talent on his roster than Embree had or has.

  2. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    UCLA is probably another year away. But you never know with a new coach and outlook. I know Mora hired some of the best recruiters in the country on his staff. And they managed to land a #12 class in 2012. Which is getting closer to USC territory. Neuheisel was never able to recruit like this. And it showed in the weakness of their lines. As for Nebraska, Pelini has never been able to bring in a top 10 clsss. And their recruiting has been very average for the last few years. The trouble is he’s never been able to bring in the difference makers. Suh was the ONLY player that I would put in that category. But I’m not ever sure Pelini recruited him. He might have been Callahan’s get. Nebraska is starting to spend more money on recruiting now that they’ve joined the Big 10. But it remains to be seen how it pays off. Pelini is such a straight shooter that makes no promises (just listen to some of his interviews) that I don’t see him selling himself or his school very well to a new recruit who wants to be told lies about how they’re going to win national championships if he comes in. I know in the Huskers forums, people aren’t nearly as optimistic about Pelini as they once were. So he’s going to have to do something special very soon. Either this year or next, or he’s probably gone.

  3. SoonerBS says:

    GS, I just researched the Nebraska/Southern Miss game and I will be leaning toward Nebraska giving points in that game. First off, Southern Miss doesn’t even know who their starting QB will be. Whoever it is, they will be replacing the most successful QB in Eagles history. The early guess is this Alford kid coming in, but dual threat or not, it will be his first ever start on an FBS level and he will do it on the road in Lincoln, Nebraska of all places! In fact, this will be the situation for whoever gets the nod at QB for Southern Miss. Nebraska will be way more experienced defensively this season and I think after last season’s performance, there will be a great deal more emphasis placed on it. Look for them to try to put a lot of pressure on the new Southern Miss QB.

    To me though, one of the keys to this game is this question — can Southern Miss stop Nebraska’s proliferate running game? Nebraska’s passing game will have to get better down the road against better defenses this season, but their running game alone should be efficient enough in this game to give them all the points they want. With Southern Miss’s inexperience on the defensive line and at linebacker, I just don’t think they can stop Nebraska. We are not talking about a top tier program here that can simply reload every year.

    Southern Miss is going to have to score a lot of points to keep up with Nebraska in this game and I don’t think they have the offensive weapons this year, nor do they have the brains behind those weapons, to keep up.

  4. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    BS…I agree about Nebraska/Southenr Miss as long as the line doesn’t get too out of hand. I can see it possibly moving up to 3 TD range. It opened in the 13-14 range. It’s now up to 16. And could possibly go higher by kickoff.. But I slightly do favor Nebraska ATS here because of the SM coaching/QB change. Like you, I suspect Nebraska will be running the ball as many times as they can get away with, without having to give away too much of their gameplan for UCLA the next week.

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