Betting on college football coaches is an important aspect of the handicapping puzzle. GoSooners aptly explains this concept in his article Before You Place Your Bets – You Better Know Your Coaches.
The 2012 NFL draft is in the books and only Alabama, Georgia and Oklahoma had more players drafted than the Iowa Hawkeyes. For the third consecutive season Iowa had six players selected in the draft, something only Alabama can share claim to in all of college football.
Based on this year’s draft results Iowa moved from 7th to 6th in The College Football Matrix’s updated NFL Draft Count vs Recruiting Rank Ratio. In other words, based on players drafted compared to their national recruiting rank, only 5 teams in the country are doing a better job than the Hawkeyes.
|Ratio Rank||Team||Picks||Rank||’02 – ’09||Recruiting Rank|
|Note: The higher the number between Draft Rank vs Recruiting Rank, the better the overall National Ratio Rank. In the chart above Cincinnati is # 1 because they have a Draft Rank vs Recruiting Rank of 49 (Recruiting Rank: 80 – Draft Rank: 31 = 49).|
And more importantly, as a college football handicapper, if Iowa is sending more players to the NFL than their recruiting rank would indicate they should, wouldn’t it stand to reason that they were also winning at a higher percentage than they should, and in turn performing better ATS?
This definitely has not been the case for the Hawkeyes between 2005 and 2011. As the following chart indicates, not only does Iowa have the lowest straight up win % than the top 6, they also have the lowest ATS win % too:
|Ratio Rank||Team||Picks||Rank||’02 – ‘-09||Recruiting Rank||Wins %||Wins %|
Clearly coaching is an important variable when trying to determine why some of these schools are able to do more with less.
However, based on The College Football Matrix’s Big 10 Coaching Effect, Ron Zook was the only Big 10 coach who had a worse coaching effect in games than Kirk Ferentz. And as we all know, nobody could do less with more than The Zooker, which is why he is no longer roaming the Illinois sidelines.
|Team||Coach||(Games)||(Games)||(Games)||4 Yr Max||Average||Avg/Yr|
|Northwestern||Fitzgerald – ’06||+11||+1||+10||4||+2.75||0.25|
|Michigan State||Dantonio ’07||+7||+3||+4||4||+1.75||0.75|
|Wisconsin||Bielema – ’06||+2||+2||0||4||0.50||0.50|
|Penn State||Paterno – ’66||-1||-1||0||4||-0.25||-0.25|
|Purdue||Hope – ’09||-1||-2||1||2||-0.50||-1.00|
|Iowa||Ferentz – ’98||-4||-2||-2||4||-1.00||-0.50|
|Michigan||Hoke – ;11||NA||NA||NA||NA||–||–|
|Indiana||Wilson – ’11||NA||NA||NA||NA||–||–|
|Ohio State||Fickell – ’11||NA||NA||NA||NA||–||–|
Kirk Ferentz and his coaching staff obviously do a good job of evaluating talent and recruiting said talent. And based on the results of the number of players they are sending to the NFL, they also appear to have the ability to develop the talent they are recruiting.
But they are not maximizing their stellar recruiting efforts by producing enough wins straight up and they are definitely overrated against the spread. Ferentz’s negative in game coaching effect is bringing down Iowa’s talent, even if it is NFL talent.
So based on the numbers, if betting on college football coaches is one of the strategies you use when handicapping games, proceed with caution when considering Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Please let me know your thoughts or opinions on Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes in the comment section below. Thanks – Pez.